As Green Field Investment prepares to hit the ground, insecurity is increasingly overwhelming Northern Nigeria if not the whole country and hitting at the very heart of where Agricultural transformation targets. At the time of this report, the following violent activities are ongoing:
- Boko Haram and Islamic State of West Africa terror continue to devastate Northeast Nigeria making agricultural and other forms of production extremely difficult;
- Banditry is overwhelming North West Nigeria, taking advantage of the Kamuku-Kuyambana Forest to sustain a regime of perpetual violence and destruction;
- Farmer/herdsmen violence is doing the same in central and some parts of southern Nigeria and generating ethno-religious tensions and violence;
- Kidnapping has taken over in most highways and the margins of urban settlements, making land travel and life all over the country uncertain and perilous; and
- Internet fraud also continue to undermine confidence in financial transactions and ordinary business and economic activities.
In the circumstance of all these, agricultural transformation of particularly the North poses a great challenge. This challenge is made more worrisome by the poor showing of the security forces which is not only overstretched, but is corrupt and lacking the discipline and trustworthiness that would have enabled civilian collaboration, essential in responding effectively to this myriad of tension and violence. Furthermore, popular response to the violence has introduced ethno-religious, political and regional sentiments in the country accentuating regional moves towards secession.
- Clear and Present Danger: Given the rate at which the security situation is degenerating at the national level, if not halted, it could degenerate into anarchy. This is more likely in the North Central region where the destruction of farm crops by herdsmen reached a height last year compelling governments of the region to begin enact laws that will put more pressure on the herdsmen creating more tension and violence and thus push the country to the edge.
- Possible Security Trigger: The ongoing communal violence against northerners in response to alleged kidnapping and herdsmen activities has the potential to trigger revenge killings and then escalate the tensions in the North Central region. For instance, in addition to Benue State banning open grazing, Plateau State has just introduced legislation to stop open grazing and to ban land grabbing. A return to sporadic violence against northerners in the south could easily be exploited by certain groups to galvanize anarchic outbreaks that will make investment at the scale anticipated by Green Field Investment very challenging.
- Potential Conflict Resolution Protocols: This will include the following: –
- A detailed violence vulnerability study to enable Green Field Investment to identify entry locations, investment activities and partners;
- Work with government, security and traditional authority in the target locations to sensitize and organize key beneficiary stakeholders into an early warning and response network or create a security architecture that identifies and responds to tensions and outbreaks of violence in a timely manner taking advantage of the community police.
4. Community Engagement for Rural Development: In our engagement, we must adopt a whole community approach taking advantage of community structures and assets to motivate and channel community effort toward the project. Community development associations and traditional authorities are critical and also agricultural cooperatives and associations and local business groups.
5. Security Extension Services: Most Communities are presently trying to develop a new security architecture given the explosion of violence and insecurity in the country. We could work with the target communities to co-create such architecture by assisting with maybe technology, modern security expertise and knowledge.
6. Economic Losses in Hotspots: Investment in the actions above will initially cost resources, but such expenses will reduce gradually as the situation stabilizes and the impact of our investment begin to manifest. Prosperity should help motivate stakeholders to begin to take some responsibility for the security of their investment and contribute to community safety and so reduce our burden.